Senior Manager Marketing Analytics Forecaster

About SimpliSafe We’re a high-tech home security company that’s passionate about protecting the life you’ve built and our mission of keeping Every Home Secure. And we’ve created a culture here that cares just as deeply about the career you’re building. Ours is a no ego culture of collaboration and innovation where those seeking their next challenge can find big opportunities and make a huge impact on the lives of all those who we protect. We don’t just want you to work here. We want you to grow and thrive here. We’re embracing a hybrid work model that enables our teams to split their time between office and home. Hybrid for us means we expect our teams to come together in our state-of-the-art office on two core days, typically Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday – working together in person and choosing where they work for the remainder of the week. We all benefit from flexibility and get to use the best of both worlds to get our work done. Why are we hiring? Well, we’re growing and thriving. So, we need smart, talented, and humble people who share our values to join us as we disrupt the home security space and relentlessly pursue our mission of keeping Every Home Secure. About the role SimpliSafe is seeking a highly motivated, detail-oriented Senior Manager, Marketing Analytics to build, maintain, and continuously improve forecasts for the company’s most critical DTC metrics: sales, subscriptions, and key unit economics. This is a high-ownership, high-visibility individual contributor role. You will be the primary owner of daily and monthly forecasting, and a key contributor to quarterly outlooks and planning. You’ll partner with Marketing, Finance/FPA, Supply Chain/Operations and Product to ensure forecasts are trusted, decision-ready, and tightly connected to real business levers. You’ll develop a deep understanding of the end-to-end customer funnel and subscriber lifecycle, translate promotions and marketing plans into forecastable drivers, and improve accuracy through better models, stronger assumptions, and systematic error analysis. You will be expected to proactively surface risks/opportunities and provide leadership with clear narratives on what changed, why, and what to do next. What you’ll do 1) Own the forecast (system + cadence) Own daily and monthly forecasts for: traffic/leads, orders, activations/installs, new subscribers, ARPU, and revenue. Produce and publish weekly/monthly/quarterly forecast updates with clear assumptions, versioning, and stakeholder-ready outputs. Maintain a driver tree that connects controllable inputs (media, promos, pricing, channel mix) to outcomes (sales, subscribers, revenue). 2) Build driver-based models that leadership can trust Build and maintain forecasting models (time series + causal drivers) that incorporate seasonality, promo calendars, pricing/offer changes, channel mix, and operational constraints. Layer assumption-driven adjustments on top of model outputs when business context changes (new promo mechanics, product launches, macro shifts), and document the “why.” Develop scenario plans (base/upside/downside) and sensitivities for media spend, promo depth, pricing changes, and macro/competitive shifts. 3) Forecast marketing impact + lead media measurement (incrementality-first) Translate marketing plans into forecast inputs: spend by channel, expected reach/response, lags, saturation/diminishing returns. Incorporate incrementality learnings (A/B, geo, lift tests) and/or MMM/MTA outputs into response curves and forecast drivers—explicitly separating correlated performance from expected incremental impact. Partner on media measurement and marketing performance analytics: design and analyze incrementality tests (A/B, holdouts, geo/lift), partner on MMM/MTA, and translate results into response curves, CAC/ROAS benchmarks, and planning assumptions. Diagnose funnel shifts (conversion, approval, attach) and lifecycle shifts (retention/churn) and explain performanc ... (truncated, view full listing at source)